During the emergence phase and stochastic processes determine when resistant mutants arise and whether they survive or not

We define a low-risk fungicide as a fungicide for which resistance does not evolve in the pathogen population in the time frame under consideration, but with efficacy that is too low to provide sufficient disease control on its own. These high and low-risk fungicides might typically represent single-site and multisite acting substances. To our knowledge, this is the first time that a model structure is presented to describe the emergence of resistance to high-risk fungicides in a pathogen population. The model consists of a deterministic sub-model to describe the dynamics of the host and the sensitive pathogen population. A stochastic sub-model was therefore used to describe the dynamics of the resistant strain. Although the model structure is generic and could be applied to many foliar pathosystems on R-IMPP determinate crops, we have as an example parameterized the model to describe the emergence of resistance in M. graminicola on winter wheat. For this specific system, we evaluated the effect of the dose rate of a high-risk fungicide on the emergence time of the resistant strain. We also determined the effect of mixing a high-risk fungicide with a low-risk fungicide on the emergence time of resistance to the high-risk fungicide. The model output suggests that the emergence time initially sharply decreases with increasing dose rate of the high-risk fungicide, but is virtually insensitive to changes within the range of higher dose rates typically needed for effective control of pathogens in commercial crops. This pattern was similar for a range of values for the mutation probability, fitness costs of resistance and sensitivities of the resistant strain to the high-risk fungicide. Mixing a high-risk fungicide with a low-risk fungicide delayed the emergence of resistance to the high-risk fungicide in comparison to solo use of the high-risk fungicide. Most experimental studies describe the development of fungicide resistance in response to different treatment strategies for the selection phase. To our knowledge, there are four experimental studies which report the evolution of fungicide resistance in a sensitive laboratory population. In these studies fungicide resistance either did not evolve or was already emerged when detected. The effect of fungicide treatment strategies on the time to the emergence of resistance can therefore not be determined from these studies. There is modelling literature on the development of fungicide resistance in response to for example the dose rate, spray frequency and Sulbutiamine spray coverage of a fungicide and in response to concurrent, sequential, alternating or mixture use of fungicides. The models in virtually all of these studies were deterministic and are therefore unable to account for the stochastic nature of the dynamics of the resistant strain in the emergence phase. To our knowledge, there are two modelling studies which describe the dynamics of the resistant strain during a part of the emergence phase as well as during the selection phase. In one of these studies, as is the case for our model, the dynamics of the resistant strain in the emergence phase were described using a stochastic model and the dynamics of the resistant strain during the selection phase were described using a deterministic model.